Hungary's recession could come to an end in the first quarter of 2010, although the economy will probably stagnate during the year, economic think tank GKI said in its latest projection prepared together with Erste Bank.
GKI projects that industrial output will grow 3.5 pct and investments will rise 3 pct this year – supported in major parts by EU-supported infrastructure developments. IT sees exports rising about 4 pct and imports climbing 6 pct, causing the foreign trade surplus to narrow to EUR 3.7 billion.
GKI projects unemployment to rise in the next few months, but from the second quarter a slight amelioration is likely, due to seasonal effects as well. Gross wages are set to inch up 1 pct while consumer prices climb 4.3 pct. The current account surplus is expected to remain flat at EUR 2.8 billion.
